Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Obama's State of the Union: Tough on Iran, but not a word about Israel

U.S. president expresses solidarity with Tunisia and talks tough on nuclear threats, but steers clear of any reference to Palestinian-Israeli talks or political upheaval in Egypt.

By Natasha Mozgovaya and Reuters


President Barack Obama played up United States progress in both Afghanistan and Iraq on Tuesday, while declaring the United States would stay tough on North Korea and Iran over their nuclear ambitions.



Obama used his annual State of the Union address to the American people to list foreign policy successes including the "re-set" in relations with Russia, a growing partnership with India and a revitalized effort to control the global spread of nuclear weapons.



But the stalled Middle East peace effort -- which Obama launched in September but quickly foundered on deep Israeli and Palestinian divisions -- got no mention, although White House officials said the omission did not reflect any flagging of U.S. commitment to the peace effort.



Obama said the United States stood with the people of Tunisia, "where the will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator" as protests this month forced the departure of longtime President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.



But he steered clear of any reference to Egypt, where a day of unprecedented protests against President Hosni Mubarak, a longtime U.S. ally, on Tuesday has raised comparisons with the Tunisian revolt.



Obama noted that U.S. troops were on schedule to finish their deployment in Iraq this year "with their heads held high" and repeated his plan to begin drawing down the some 97,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan in July despite the continued threat posed by al Qaida.



"There will be tough fighting ahead, and the Afghan government will need to deliver better governance. But we are strengthening the capacity of the Afghan people and building an

enduring partnership with them," Obama said.



For al-Qaida, he said the message was clear: "We will not relent, we will not waver, and we will defeat you."



Defusing nuclear threats



Obama said the United States was committed to defusing the world's nuclear threats -- signaling no let up in U.S. pressure on Tehran and Pyongyang despite efforts to engage both in discussions of their nuclear programs.



"Because of a diplomatic effort to insist that Iran meet its obligations, the Iranian government now faces tougher and tighter sanctions than ever before," Obama said, less than a week after the latest round of talks between Tehran and world powers ended with no sign of progress.



"And on the Korean peninsula, we stand with our ally South Korea, and insist that North Korea keeps its commitment to abandon nuclear weapons," he said.



Obama, who has visited China, India, Indonesia and Ghana, announced plans to visit Brazil, Chile and El Salvador in March, part of a U.S. diplomatic campaign to shore up ties with fast-emerging regions.



And he urged Congress to pass a free trade agreement with South Korea "as soon as possible" while offering no timetable for action on two other pacts with Panama and Colombia.

New MI chief: Iran could have nukes within two years

Published 15:18 25.01.11


Brigadier-General Aviv Kochavi tells MKs that Iran could quickly develop the bomb, but it is not in its interests at the moment.

By Jonathan Lis

Iran will be able to achieve a nuclear bomb within one or two years, the incoming head of Israel's Military Intelligence said Tuesday, but added that such a move would depend on the will of the Tehran leadership.



"The question is not when Iran will have the bomb. The question is how long it will take for an Iranian leader to decide to have the centrifuges start enriching at 90 percent," Brigadier-General Aviv Kochavi told a meeting of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.



Kochavi said he does not expect an Iranian leader to make such a decision in the next year out of a fear of harming the government, which is already paying an economic price over fear of their nuclear program.



"At this moment, it is not in Iran's interest to move their [nuclear] program forward," Kochavi said.



Iran's regime is guarding [the country's] stability despite the sanctions against it," Kochavi said. "The sanctions don't hurt their nuclear development program or the strengthening of their military. Rather the sanctions affect the country's economy and citizens."



"The Iranian regime's drastic reduction in public subsidies, especially in the price of gasoline in the country, which happened in the past year, gives the government an extra 600 million dollars a year," Kochavi added.

Citing Options, Iran Rejects Uranium Deal, Diplomat Says

NYtimes
January 24, 2011

By STEVEN ERLANGER

PARIS — At the talks between Iran and six major powers in Istanbul over the weekend, Iran said it was “no longer interested” in a fuel-swap deal proposed by Washington and the others, a senior Western diplomat said Monday.
In Istanbul, the lead Western negotiator, Catherine Ashton, said only that her Iranian counterpart, Saeed Jalili, had refused to engage on the details of a revised offer to swap most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium for fuel rods, to power a declining Tehran reactor that produces medical isotopes.
After she laid out the proposals, Ms. Ashton, the head of the delegation of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany, told journalists on Saturday, “I made it clear that they should consider them and come back to us.” Asked whether Mr. Jalili agreed to do so, she said that he had listened, but “He didn’t say, ‘Oh, O.K., I will.’ ”
American officials briefing reporters also described Mr. Jalili’s response in vague terms, saying that the proposals remained on the table and that the six powers were prepared to negotiate without preconditions.
But the senior Western diplomat, who would speak only anonymously, in keeping with diplomatic protocol, was more explicit, saying that Mr. Jalili told Ms. Ashton and the other powers that “Iran was no longer interested in the Tehran reactor” because it had found its own source of uranium and could produce the fuel itself.
Though Iran’s view may change, the Jalili statement in private to the group made talks seem less likely to resume anytime soon. The development is also likely to increase pressure on President Obama and others to ratchet up sanctions against Iran while they see whether Tehran changes its mind. Russia and China may be reluctant to go for another round of United Nations sanctions just a few months after the last.
The diplomat said that Mr. Jalili simply repeated his demands that the group make a statement “recognizing Iran’s right to enrich” and lifting existing sanctions immediately, as preconditions for further movement.
All six nations — the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — rejected the preconditions and said that Iran must come into compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency before sanctions could be lifted.
While the West recognizes Iran’s right under the treaty to civilian nuclear energy, that does not mean an explicit right to enrichment, and the Security Council has repeatedly demanded that Iran stop enrichment, because of its deceptions about its nuclear program and its unwillingness to answer all questions from the nuclear agency.
The idea of the fuel swap was proposed by the United States in October 2009 as a confidence-building measure. A goal was to reduce Iran’s stock of low-enriched uranium by 75 percent, to about 300 kilograms, which is less than what is required to build a single bomb. But now Iran has nearly three times the amount of low-enriched uranium it had then, as well as about 40 kilograms of uranium enriched to 19.75 percent, more than halfway to bomb grade.
The diplomat said that the proposal made to the Iranians was not specific on numbers, but that the intention was the same — to leave Iran with only about 300 kilograms of uranium enriched to between 3.5 percent and 5 percent.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Statement by the EU High Representative Catherine Ashton on behalf of E3+3 following the talks with Iran in Istanbul, 21 and 22 January 2011

First, the countries I represent and I would like to thank the Turkish authorities and in particular


Foreign Minister Davutoglu for their generous hospitality here in Istanbul.

The countries I represent remain united in seeking a swift resolution of the international

community’s concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, on the basis of successive Security

Council Resolutions and Resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors. That remains the central

purpose of these talks.

In Geneva, we agreed that at this meeting in Istanbul we would discuss practical ideas and ways of

cooperating towards a resolution of our core concerns about the nuclear issue.

We came here with specific practical proposals which would build trust. We put forward detailed

ideas including on an updated version of the TRR fuel exchange arrangement and ways to improve

transparency through IAEA monitoring measures accepted by the international community. We

came without preconditions, and made every effort to secure agreement.

We have had a series of meetings with Iran, including a separate meeting of the Vienna Group

countries with Iran.

We had hoped to have a detailed and constructive discussion of those ideas. But it became clear that

the Iranian side was not ready for this, unless we agreed to pre-conditions relating to enrichment

and sanctions.

Both these pre-conditions are not a way to proceed. On the fuel cycle we have said many times,

including today, that we recognise Iran’s right to a civil nuclear energy programme. It remains

essential that Iran demonstrates that its programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes.

But so far the IAEA has not been able to certify the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s

programme, given what the Agency states is a lack of sufficient cooperation by Iran.

As far as the removal of sanctions is concerned, it remains our united position that this would

accompany the re-establishment of confidence in the Iranian nuclear programme rather than be a

precondition for discussing it. We also note that UNSC Resolution 1929 specifies the

requirements for removal of sanctions, and those do not exist today.

This is not the conclusion I had hoped for. We had hoped to embark on a discussion of practical

ways forward, and have made every effort to make that happen. I am disappointed to say

that this has not been possible. The E3+3 reaffirmed their continued commitment to pursuing a

diplomatic solution. We expect Iran to demonstrate a pragmatic attitude and to respond positively to

our openness toward dialogue and negotiations. The door remains open, the choice remains in Iran’s

hands.

I have made personally clear to Dr Jalili that our proposals remain on the table and that we are

ready to start talking without preconditions the moment Iran is ready.

here

______________________

British Foreign Secretary statement on conclusion of Iran talks

The Foreign Secretary said:


“The E3+3 went to Istanbul united and ready to engage constructively with Iran. As Baroness Ashton has made clear we put forward specific ideas to build confidence and to allow Iran to address international concerns about its nuclear programme. These were set out in detail, and rooted in international law.
Iran’s refusal to engage, including its insistence on pre-conditions that were clearly unrealistic, is extremely disappointing. This is the clear and unified conclusion of the E3+3. Until Iran recognises the need to engage meaningfully, the pressure on it will only increase.
The choice is now Iran’s. We have made every effort to make progress. We are committed to ensure a diplomatic resolution to our concerns and the door to future talks remains open. But Iran must demonstrate that it is serious about addressing international concerns about the nature of its nuclear programme or face increasing international isolation. It should not doubt our resolve."

Washington’s World: January 24th – January 30th, 2011

Despite the heady expectations attached to the US-China summit, there is little evidence that any shift in opinion among policy-makers has taken place. In essence, the same dichotomy remains in place. Those who are suspicious of China – an unusual alliance of left-leaning human rights activists and conservative military hawks – remain suspicious; those who are supportive – led by major industrial and financial interests – remain supportive. We hear from contacts in Congress that the Democratic leadership there is upset that President Obama did not press his Chinese guests more forcefully on human rights. Conversely, senior Republican officials tell us they will continue to ‘beat the drum’ about China’s military build-up. Within the Administration, the visit did nothing to allay concerns that China is – as a matter of policy – determined to challenge the global preeminence of the US dollar and US military leadership in East Asia. With opinions divided in this way, our assessment is that US-China relations will continue to be unsettled. As one National Security Council official commented to us: “China’s friends will have to work hard to keep tensions under control.” China will continue to be the dominant issue in US foreign policy. With regard to Iran, the Istanbul P5+1 discussions brought little progress. However, US officials tell us that they remain committed to the sanctions track to bring about a change in Tehran’s nuclear program. We do not see any signs that the Administration is interested in a military option. Regarding Sudan, White House attention remains high. Any deterioration in the security situation there will attract sustained US diplomatic engagement. Domestically, the temporary suspension of ‘politics as usual’ arising from the Tucson shootings is coming to an end. Obama’s State of the Union address on January 25th will meet a forceful Republican rejoinder on government spending. The most difficult period in the Obama Administration will play out in the coming weeks.

Iran rejects bilateral meeting with U.S. at nuclear talks

HAARETZ
22.01.11

Aide to Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili says request for meeting made by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.


Iran has rejected a request to hold a bilateral meeting with the United States during ongoing talks in Istanbul with six world powers over its nuclear program, an Iranian official said on Saturday.



Abolfazl Zohrevand, an aide to Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili, said the request had been made by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who has led talks for the big powers --the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany.



"There is no need to hold such talks if it is not about the nuclear meeting in Istanbul," Zohrevand told Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam television news channel. Since the fall of the U.S. backed shah in 1979, any contacts between the Islamic Republic and the United States have usually taken place behind the scenes, and were rarely confirmed by the Iranian side.



On Friday, U.S. State Department spokesman said following the first day of talks with Iran and world powers in Istanbul that they were willing to engage Iran but they remained realistic.



Philip Crowley said the U.S. had three main concerns regarding Iran: their nuclear program, their suspected state sponsor of terrorism, and their interference in the Middle East peace process.



"Iran remains, arguably, the leading international state sponsor of terrorism. Iran is undermining the international community's efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East. So we're in Istanbul engaged with Iran to try to see if we can't resolve the nuclear file. But we're not putting all of our eggs in one basket," Crowley said.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Some Links on Hu Jintao's Visit to the US- 2011

U.S. Shifts Focus to Press China for Access to Markets
 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/world/asia/19prexy.html

Obama holds talks with Hu, urges partnership and respect for human rights

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/18/AR2011011805754.html?hpid=topnews

Obama holds talks with Hu, urges partnership and respect for human rights

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/18/AR2011011805754.html?hpid=topnews

Wary Powers Set to Square Off

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704678004576089881162633472.html

China Leader’s Limits Come Into Focus as U.S. Visit Nears
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/17/world/asia/17china.html

China's Hu Jintao answers questions with Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/16/AR2011011601921_pf.html

Nuclear talks yield no consensus

The second and final day of talks on Iran's nuclear program has drawn to a close in Istanbul, ending a round of unproductive negotiations regarding the issue of Iran’s plans for uranium enrichment.


­Tehran staunchly avoided a direct discussion of its atomic agenda as officials from the six world powers – the US, Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany – pressed for guarantees that the Islamic state would not develop nuclear weapons.



Wrapping up two days of meetings, the EU's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said Iran will remain under UN sanctions for failure to cooperate.



Iran is currently facing a fourth round of UN sanctions, severe limitations on the sale of arms, travel bans and asset freezes for some members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

These measures have not, however, proven effective in changing the Islamic Republic’s scheme and its envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltani, has even gone so far as to assure that: "Resolutions, sanctions, threats, computer virus nor even a military attack will stop uranium enrichment in Iran."

When talks appeared deadlocked, US officials admitted that the most they were hoping for was an agreement to meet again, though no such plans were made.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the main focus of the six nations was establishing a concrete plan to move forward. He suggested that if Iran is able to prove its nuclear program is peaceful and pass the inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Republic could proceed with its program with international approval.



So far, Tehran has not replied to the IAEA’s proposal to enrich its uranium abroad and supply Iran with nuclear fuel for its peaceful nuclear reactors, thus providing international control over its nuclear program. Instead, Iran has stated it will continue pursuing its nuclear program independently and despite any possible threats of attack on its facilities.

Iran nuclear talks end without agreement

Reuters

Country's stance is 'unacceptable' diplomat leading six-country delegation says


Two days of talks between six world powers and Iran, aimed at persuading the Islamic Republic to rein in its nuclear program, concluded without agreement on Saturday, a diplomat said.




European Union Foreign Policy chief Catherine Ashton, who led delegations from the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, said she was "disappointed" by Iran's stance in the negotiations.



She said Iran's preconditions on nuclear issues were unacceptable, adding that the six powers were united in their position.



Ashton said there were no plans for any new talks, but the door remained open.



An Iranian official said the talks would resume, but that no date or venue had been set.



The West suspects Iran plans to develop nuclear weapons while Tehran says its atomic energy program is peaceful.



The standoff has dragged on for eight years. There have been scant signs of progress during the talks.