Washington’s World: January 24th – January 30th, 2011

Despite the heady expectations attached to the US-China summit, there is little evidence that any shift in opinion among policy-makers has taken place. In essence, the same dichotomy remains in place. Those who are suspicious of China – an unusual alliance of left-leaning human rights activists and conservative military hawks – remain suspicious; those who are supportive – led by major industrial and financial interests – remain supportive. We hear from contacts in Congress that the Democratic leadership there is upset that President Obama did not press his Chinese guests more forcefully on human rights. Conversely, senior Republican officials tell us they will continue to ‘beat the drum’ about China’s military build-up. Within the Administration, the visit did nothing to allay concerns that China is – as a matter of policy – determined to challenge the global preeminence of the US dollar and US military leadership in East Asia. With opinions divided in this way, our assessment is that US-China relations will continue to be unsettled. As one National Security Council official commented to us: “China’s friends will have to work hard to keep tensions under control.” China will continue to be the dominant issue in US foreign policy. With regard to Iran, the Istanbul P5+1 discussions brought little progress. However, US officials tell us that they remain committed to the sanctions track to bring about a change in Tehran’s nuclear program. We do not see any signs that the Administration is interested in a military option. Regarding Sudan, White House attention remains high. Any deterioration in the security situation there will attract sustained US diplomatic engagement. Domestically, the temporary suspension of ‘politics as usual’ arising from the Tucson shootings is coming to an end. Obama’s State of the Union address on January 25th will meet a forceful Republican rejoinder on government spending. The most difficult period in the Obama Administration will play out in the coming weeks.