Washington’s World: December 13th – December 19th, 2010

President Obama is embarking on a new phase of his presidency in which he will seek to build a constituency for his reelection in 2012. His task is daunting. As shown by his defense of his compromise over taxation policy, he risks alienating his own supporters while picking up little compensating support from independents and Republicans. Whether he is able to resolve this dilemma will define the rest of his time in office. Republicans are publicly and privately confident that he will fail. Democrats hope that he will be able to repeat Bill Clinton's revival after 1994. The implications for foreign policy are already to be seen as foreign actors react to the change in US political dynamics. The Administration has abandoned its efforts to induce Israel to suspend settlement activities and is holding open further negotiations to Iran. We have never been hopeful that the Middle East peace process would prosper, but even those officials most closely associated with the effort concede that progress will not be attainable in the foreseeable future. Regarding China, NSC officials tell us that of their concern that Beijing is exploiting what it sees as US weakness to pursue an uncooperative line over North Korea. A senior State Department delegation will visit Beijing next week, to be followed by Defense Secretary Gates in the new year in an attempt to normalize US-China cooperation. In Washington the debate about China is intensifying. Obama’s critical remarks over the Chinese refusal to allow Nobel laureate Liu Xiaobo to attend the December 10th award ceremony are symptomatic of the ambivalence toward China felt by top officials. The emerging policy option in Washington is to maintain ‘leverage’ over Beijing. As one Pentagon official put it to us: “It’s easier to say that than to do it. But we do know that we must remain in a position to assert ourselves in China’s backyard.” On Afghanistan, the official line remains optimistic, but behind the scenes expectations are being lowered. While the incoming House foreign affairs leaders are hawkish on China and Iran, they are close to Administration thinking on Afghanistan. We do not expect any pressure to expand the US footprint. Instead, modest withdrawals will start in 2011.