Outgoing Mossad chief: Iran won't have nuclear capability before 2015

Sat, January 08, 2011

Meir Dagan tells Knesset committee that Iran's nuclear program has been set back several years after a series of malfunctions.

Meir Dagan, who retired from his post as Mossad chief on Thursday after eight years, does not believe Iran will have nuclear capability before 2015.
In a summary given to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Dagan said Iran was a long way from being able to produce nuclear weapons, following a series of failures that had set its program back by several years.
Dagan handed over the job to his successor, Tamir Pardo, in the Prime Minister’s Bureau Thursday morning, after having parted from the ministers during last Sunday’s cabinet session.
The former Mossad chief had said on various occasions in the past that Israel should go to war only if attacked, or if in immediate danger of survival.
Dagan concluded his term saying Iran was still far from being capable of producing nuclear weapons and that a series of malfunctions had put off its nuclear goal for several years. Therefore, he said, Iran will not get hold of the bomb before 2015 approximately.
According to a Wikileaks report, Dagan told a senior American official that it would take a series of coordinated moves to stop the Iranian nuclear program. He reportedly suggested increasing the economic sanctions against Iran, preventing the export of products required for the nuclear project to Iran, covert warfare, and encouraging minority and opposition groups to topple the Iranian regime.
Dagan’s work with Pardo over the past several weeks included trips abroad to present his successor to counterparts around the world. Their trip to England did not reflect the crisis between London and Jerusalem over the Mossad’s alleged use of British passports in the assassination of Hamas official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh last year in Dubai.
President Shimon Peres, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and senior defense and security officials will soon attend a farewell event for Dagan as well. Such events have become customary since 1995, when the government decided to expose the identity of the heads of both the Mossad and the Shin Bet security service.
Reputation restored
During his term, Dagan restored the Mossad’s reputation as an omnipotent organization whose reach extends to the ends of the earth − a myth that has contributed to Israel’s deterrence. Under his command, the espionage agency also regained its dominant status in the Israeli intelligence community and became a central player in the international arena. This was demonstrated in the numerous tete-a-tetes Dagan held with former U.S. President George Bush and other state leaders in Europe and the Middle East.
Dagan’s term centered around two main issues: the Iranian nuclear program; and the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders and Iranian scientists, most if not all of which have been attributed to the Mossad.
The Israeli intelligence community’s assessments of Iran’s nuclear capability have changed during Dagan’s tenure. In 2003, Israeli intelligence officials thought Iran would have its first bomb by 2007. In 2007, they thought it would be 2009, and a year later they put it at 2011. Now the date has moved to 2015. These adjustments were not the result of mistaken evaluations, but due to the difficulties Iran has encountered in advancing its program, largely because of the Mossad’s efforts.

Moshe Ya'alon Deputy PM: West has three years to stop Iran nuclear program

Haaretz
Published 29.12.10


Moshe Ya'alon says Iran remains the government's biggest worry, hopes for success of U.S.-led actions against Teheran.

The United States and its allies have up to three years to curb Iran's nuclear program, which has been set back by technical difficulties and sanctions, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon said on Wednesday.

Saying Iran remained the government's biggest worry, Yaalon did not mention possible unilateral military strikes by Israel, saying he hoped U.S.-led action against Tehran would be successful.

"I believe that this effort will grow, and will include areas beyond sanctions, to convince the Iranian regime that, effectively, it must choose between continuing to seek nuclear capability and surviving," Ya'alon told Israel Radio. "I don't know if it will happen in 2011 or in 2012, but we are talking in terms of the next three years."

Ya'alon, a former armed forces chief, noted Iran's uranium enrichment plan had suffered setbacks. Some analysts have seen signs of foreign sabotage in incidents such as the corruption of Iranian computer networks by a virus.

"These difficulties postpone the timeline, of course. Thus we cannot talk about a 'point of no return'. Iran does not currently have the ability to make a nuclear bomb on its own," Ya'alon said. "I hope it won't succeed at all and that the Western world's effort will ultimately deny Iran a nuclear capability."

Ya'alon had previously been hawkish on Iran, saying Israel, believed to have region's only nuclear arsenal, should attack Iran rather than see it get the bomb.

Other officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have been tight-lipped about the military option, which would face big tactical and diplomatic hurdles.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday Iran will retain its right to pursue nuclear technology.

Speaking about next month's planned nuclear talks with world powers in Istanbul, Ahmadinejad said "We are willing to cooperate with [them] in Istanbul, but all of them should acknowledge Iran's right to pursue nuclear technology and know that we will not retreat on inch from these rights."

The six world powers - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States - demand that Iran suspend its controversial uranium enrichment, in line with five United Nations Security Council resolutions, four of them with sanctions, designed to make sure the Islamic state is not pursuing a secret military program.

While denying the existence of military nuclear programs, Tehran has referenced its right as a Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty signatory and International Atomic Energy Agency member, saying, like any other country, it has the right to have civil nuclear projects, including uranium enrichment.

Mullen: US `Very Ready' To Counter Iran On Nukes

MANAMA, Bahrain December 18, 2010, 01:08 pm ET

Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb, posing a threat to its neighbors, and the United States is "very ready" to counter Iran should it make a move, the top U.S. military officer said Saturday.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, sought to reassure Persian Gulf nations nervous that an increasingly militarized government in Iran might try to start a war.

"The United States takes very seriously our security commitments in the Gulf region," Mullen said following a meeting with Bahrain's king. Bahrain, directly across the Gulf from Iran, is home to a large U.S. Navy base that would be on the front lines of any war with Iran.

"We're very ready," Mullen said, an unusually direct acknowledgment that the United States has contingency plans to counter Iran should it make a move. "There are real threats to peace and stability here, and we've made no secrets of our concerns about Iran."

In Iran, the new foreign minister — and current nuclear chief — said Saturday that he wants to build the country's relationship with Saudi Arabia and strengthen ties with Turkey, China and Russia. The latter two countries have veto power on the U.N. Security Council that could help Iran as it tries to fend off tougher sanctions.

Ali Akbar Salehi, who heads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, replaced longtime foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who was fired Monday by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad without public explanation.

Iran denies it is seeking a nuclear weapon, and denies U.S. claims that it sponsors terrorists. Iran has wary relations with many of its neighbors, who are trading partners with the oil giant but distrust the theocratic government.

"Concerns about Iran's nuclear program are very real and inform a lot of the decision making" among Gulf nations, said Adam Ereli, the U.S. ambassador in Bahrain.

The U.S. fears that if Iran masters the technical challenge of building a bomb it could set off a nuclear arms race around the Gulf.

"From my perspective I see Iran continuing on this path to develop nuclear weapons, and I believe that that development and achieving that goal would be very destabilizing to the region," Mullen said.

He gave no specifics about U.S. plans or defenses, but the Navy base is headquarters for ships and aircraft that monitor Iran and could be used to deter or defend against what military officials fear would be an attack that would come without warning. The base also houses Patriot missiles.

The U.S. keeps tabs on Iran through extensive air surveillance in the Gulf and from naval patrols that regularly engage in formal communication with Iranian ships.

"I would like someday to think that they would be responsible regional and international players as opposed to what they are right now," Mullen added. "I just haven't seen any steps taken in that regard."

Mullen said he supports the current strategy of applying economic and political sanctions on Iran to try to dissuade it from building a bomb, while engaging Iran in international negotiations over the scope of its nuclear program. Iran claims it is seeking nuclear energy.

Mullen repeated his view that a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's known nuclear facilities is a bad option that would set off "unintended consequences," but one the United States reserves the right to use. The Obama administration has said it will not allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons state but has never said exactly what steps it would take to prevent that.

"I've said all options have been on the table and remain on the table," Mullen said.

Iran is currently under four sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions and subject to additional penalties imposed separately by the United States, European countries and others. The most recent round of Security Council sanctions were adopted in June.

The Obama administration and its European allies are prepared to impose additional sanctions if Iran fails to meet international demands to prove that its nuclear program is peaceful, a senior U.S. official said Friday.

Gary Samore, the White House coordinator for arms control, told a Washington think tank that the U.S. and its partners will keep up pressure on Iran to come clean about its nuclear ambitions.

Leaders of six U.S.-allied Gulf Arab nations said this month they are watching Iran's nuclear ambitions with "utmost concern," and appealed to the West for a greater voice in the renewed talks with Tehran.

The statement from the Gulf Cooperation Council — powerful Saudi Arabia and its fast-growing neighbors — appeared to cast off a bit of the group's traditional caution and adopt a harder tone. The group warned Iran not to interfere in Gulf Arab affairs and called on it to reject "force or the threat to use it."

Iran holds frequent military drills along the Persian Gulf — primarily to assert an ability to defend against any U.S. or Israeli attack on its nuclear sites, but also to send a message to Arab neighbors on its southern border.