Washington’s World: Themes for 2011

Predictions have a predictable record of coming unstuck. We do, however, believe that it is sensible to identify a limited number of broad themes of probable salience. In that spirit, we offer 11 items for 2011 and extend to our readers our best wishes for the year.

1. President Obama’s attention will center on domestic priorities. Foreign policy issues will have to force their way onto his agenda, either by their intrinsic importance to US interests or as the result of an emergency. It is unlikely that the US government will reach for goals beyond those currently in play.

2. With Congress divided and ideological passions prominent, the ability of the US governance system to deliver timely decisions on the pressing issues of the day will be severely tested. Maneuvering for the 2012 elections will shape much of the debate.

3. US economic performance will steadily improve, but some sectors of the economy, notably housing, will continue to be fragile. Federal debt ratios will remain obstinately high. Obama's re-election prospects will depend on his perceived success in job recovery.

4. Emerging funding constraints will significantly limit the Pentagon's ability to achieve its goals abroad. Any new spending will focus on enhancing US capabilities in Asia.

5. The US will maintain its rhetorical commitment to human rights. This will complicate

relations with Russia, China and allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

6. The search for a viable US policy with regard to China, steering between partnership and hostility, will be the dominant foreign policy theme. The US will encourage its partners in India, Japan, South Korea and the whole Pacific Rim to play more countervailing roles. The implications for global financial matters will be significant.

7. The Iranian quest for nuclear weaponry will come to a head in 2011 with Israel championing a more aggressive policy and finding increasing support in Congress.  The Administration will maneuver to avoid military action.

8. The Administration will attempt to maintain the fragile status quo on the Korean Peninsular. The US will do everything it can to steer clear of a confrontation.  

9. The Middle East peace process will lose priority for the Administration during 2011.

10. In Afghanistan, the US mission will point to growing numbers of trained Afghan security forces as the precursor to initiating a drawdown.  Strategic success against the Taliban will remain elusive.

11.  The Administration's efforts against al-Qaeda will see increased activity in the Yemen and the Horn of Africa as well as stepped up efforts to root out the "homegrown" threat.  These actions will offer a mixed record of achievement.