The Middle East in Transition

Summary:




On Wednesday, March 16, 2011, the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) hosted an event at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., entitled “Democratization in the Middle East? Implications of the Arab Spring.” The afternoon’s discussion was split into two panels. The first panel, “The Middle East in Transition,” was comprised of Michele Dunne, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. FPI Director Robert Kagan, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, served as moderator.



Michele Dunne began the discussion by outlining the broad disconnect between various Arab governments and their people. Though the causes of protests in each country differ, the Arab Spring has transformed long held economic and social anger into unified political grievances. Dunne argued that while transition is under way in only two countries - Egypt and Tunisia - the Arab Spring is uniting support across economic, labor, and social movements to increase pressure on regimes across the region.



Reuel Marc Gerecht focused his introductory remarks on the role that Islamists will play in the “new” Middle East. He explained how too often the viewpoint of Western commentators and intellectuals is frozen in time and seeks to understand the current context through the prism of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. However, Gerecht explained that this perspective no longer correlates to the perspectives and situation within Mideast societies. In Iran, he noted, Islamists have struggled with the democratic mandate and have accepted the ballot box as the proper source of political legitimacy over the course of decades of rich debate and discussion. In the democratic transformation now underway, Islamist groups and religious parties in the region will be forced to tackle the same questions and challenges that toppled regimes in Egypt and Tunisia.



Dunne then assessed the situation in Egypt, and explained how the democratic revolutionary process is still rapidly changing every day under the Military Council. She praised Egypt’s newly appointed interior minister for fulfilling a central demand of the opposition protestors by dissolving the country’s long feared security agency. The invasive security apparatus, known for brutal human-rights abuses and invasive monitoring of opposition and political figures, will be replaced. Dunne did express worry over the hasty election schedule, and urged the United States to publically stress the importance of a real transition to democracy.



Kagan then asked the panel two questions: How were actions by the United States viewed in Egypt? And how is the United States reacting to the situation in Bahrain?



Regarding the first, Dunne expressed concern that historians will judge American reaction to the revolution as lukewarm and somewhat inconsistent. After weeks of debate, the administration did make the correct decision one week before Mubarak’s fall from power, she said, but history will judge whether the United States could have done more.



The situation in Bahrain, they agreed, is fueled by decades of ethnic and economic tension between a majority Shiite population and a ruling Sunni government. Though protesters have not focused on the government’s alliance to the United States or the presence of the Navy’s 5th Fleet, the panel agreed that United States must quickly press the government to make key reforms. Gerecht ended the discussion by predicting the situation will unlikely end well, as the Khalifa Government is unlikely to make political concessions or step down.