Washington’s World: March 7th – March 13th, 2011

In answer to a journalist’s question this week about whether he would intervene in the National Football League’s labor dispute, President Obama replied that he had “a lot on.” This is certainly the case. On both the domestic and foreign fronts, he faces daunting problems. Despite the temporary agreement on authorizing government spending for a further 14 days, there is still no final resolution on the federal budget. More acrimonious debate lies ahead which will deeply engage Obama’s attention. With both Democrats and Republicans anxious to avoid public criticism for shutting down the government, the prospects for a compromise have been rising. Nonetheless, the time spent on the budget debate has consequences for foreign policy co-ordination. Obama’s top advisers, Secretary of State Clinton and Secretary of Defense Gates have sometimes seemed at odds on potential US military action with regard to Libya, with the latter raising serious reservations about the imposition of a no-fly zone and winning the argument. While some foreign policy experts have urged military intervention in Libya, our contacts at the White House and Pentagon tell us that the US will remain very cautious. Any action will, we understand, be humanitarian in nature and will only take place in close cooperation with allies and outside Libya’s borders. Out of the headlines, US officials are more concerned about Bahrain and the possibility that Saudi Arabia might intervene in support of the Khalifa monarchy. Efforts are underway to steer the parties toward an acceptable compromise. US officials are not confident that this is within reach. Beyond the Middle East, the Pentagon sees substantial risks ahead in an intensification of fighting in Afghanistan. In private, US officers are noticeably less optimistic than the public briefings, citing the difficulty of sustaining gains in the face of the Taliban’s continuing ability to open new fronts. The Administration’s advantage in this debate is that the war attracts little public interest, let alone controversy.